9 September 2021: OIA response | Patient estimates for secukinumab for psoriatic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis

9 September 2021 

Dear [name and contact details withheld] 

Request for information 

Thank you for your request dated 18 August 2021 under the Official Information Act 1982 (OIA) for information relating to patient estimates for secukinumab. You requested: 

  1. The patient numbers from the budget impact analysis considered by PTAC for secukinumab for psoriatic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis
  2. Detail about any further patient number modelling that was conducted prior to consultation for secukinumab for psoriatic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis 

I have provided information in response to your request within this letter. 

I note your request relates to modelling used to inform the funding applications for secukinumab listed below:

  • Psoriatic arthritis, 1st biologic line
  • Ankylosing spondylitis, 2nd biologic line 

More details of these funding applications can be found on our Application Tracker: https://connect.pharmac.govt.nz/apptracker/s/global-search/secukinumab(external link)

Estimated number of patients for secukinumab as considered by PTAC in 2018

Indication

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Ankylosing spondylitis

24

68

100

121

135

Psoriatic arthritis

9

20

30

43

53

Total patients treated

33

88

130

164

186

Note: these numbers were included in the paper for consideration by the Pharmacology and Therapeutics Advisory Committee (PTAC) in 2018. A record of the PTAC meeting held February 2018 [PDF, 640 KB] can be found on our website: www.pharmac.govt.nz > About > How we get expert advice > Pharmacology and Therapeutics Advisory Committee (PTAC) > Records of PTAC meetings 

Details of further patient number modelling conducted prior to consultation in 2021

Our health economists have reviewed and updated the estimated patient numbers for these applications several times over the past three years. 

Although the initial budget impact analysis considered by PTAC in 2018 estimated a relatively low number of people, subsequent updates based on the likely uptake of secukinumab and the size of the patient population eligible for treatment estimated a sizeable increase in the estimated number of people to be given funded access to secukinumab.

Medicine uptake data was based on internal discussions and informed by the uptake of other community-administered biologics for similar indications. Updates to the size of the patient population was informed by the number of patients currently accessing biologics for these indications, the growth of the patient population in preceding financial years, and a likely expansion of the treated patient population with secukinumab listing (approximately 10%). 

Assumptions that informed most recent patient number modeling estimates:

  • People currently accessing funded biologic treatments for these indications:
    • Psoriatic arthritis: approx. 860
    • Ankylosing spondylitis: 1000
  • Patient population growth over time:
    • Psoriatic arthritis: 9%
    • Ankylosing spondylitis: 5% 

We trust that this information answers your queries. We are making our information more freely available, so we now publish selected OIA responses (excluding personal details) on our website. Please get in touch with us if you have any questions about this. 

Yours sincerely 

Rachel Read
Manager, Policy and Government Services